The former head of Greenpeace International argues in his most recent book that a massive ecological crisis is inevitable. He predicts widespread famine, war between nations desperate for resources and a financial crisis that will bring the world economy to a standstill for decades.
His lifestyle could be that of someone preparing for the end of the world as we know it. The 52-year-old lives in a converted shed in remote Tasmania with his wife and two youngest children, on an organic blueberry and sheep farm that also has fruit trees and vegetable gardens.
Yet Mr. Gilding insists he is an optimist.
'There are people getting ready for doomsday and I'm not,' insists the author of 'The Great Disruption: How the Climate Crisis Will Transform the Global Economy.'
'In commercial terms, I'm living in the current economy, but I have a hedging strategy for it all going wrong,' he says by telephone from his study, a transformed woodshed. His Tasmania home is not about self-sufficiency so much as 'the physical benefit of living in a beautiful place.'
It's a complicated view of the world that reflects Mr. Gilding's career as an environmentalist, which has included stints as an activist and a corporate consultant.
Born in Adelaide to Methodist parents who worked in social services, he was involved in human-rights activism from age 15. In his late teens, he chained himself to the South African embassy in Canberra to protest apartheid. He dropped out of school and worked in a remote aboriginal community in the far north of Queensland and for an antinuclear senator.
Then, at age 23, he joined the Royal Australian Air Force. Young Mr. Gilding had become a realist: Activism did not pay well, and the military seemed like another way to serve the community, he says. 'Whether it was in the air force or working for Greenpeace, to me it was all the same thing of making the world a better place and making a contribution,' he says. He learned electronics and worked on flight simulators in Sydney.
But it wasn't destined to be a long career, especially once Mr. Gilding became involved in antinuclear protests, driving inflatable boats in front of visiting aircraft carriers. He says of himself and the military, 'Let's just say that we agreed to part company at that point.'
In 1989, he joined Greenpeace Australia, where he led direct-action campaigns. Five years later, he moved to Amsterdam to lead Greenpeace International ─ but within 18 months had a falling-out with the board. 'I thought we should be supporting some companies and opposing other companies, not opposing the corporate sector per se,' he says.
So Mr. Gilding left Greenpeace, and in 1995 set up a consulting firm called Ecos Corp., which provided advice on sustainability to dozens of businesses including major international corporations like BHP Billiton, Ford and DuPont, and leading Australian companies such as ANZ Bank and Insurance Australia Group.
He was also CEO of Easy Being Green, which was owned by Ecos and employed more than 200 people. Its business was installing energy-efficient lighting, which it could do at no cost to the homeowner because it generated and sold carbon credits, reflecting the energy savings. It installed the lighting in more than 600,000 households in Australia.
But in late 2007 the New South Wales state carbon price collapsed, and Easy Being Green's operations were suspended. The company was sold but left debts that forced Mr. Gilding to sell Ecos in 2008. Since then, he has done some private consulting for corporations and turned to writing.
'You invest so much in a book, and especially in my case because it's about the issues I spent my life on,' he says. He describes releasing the latest book as 'an emotional roller coaster,' as well as a physically demanding exercise. He recently returned from three months in Europe, the U.S. and New Zealand promoting his book and meeting business leaders.
'There are endless invitations to go on tour in America and elsewhere doing public-speaking tours,' he says.
He plans to hit the road again soon to talk about the need to prepare for impending crisis. He says humanity is living in denial about the severity of the threat it faces from global warming and its rapid use of finite resources. But he says he also believes we will make a Herculean effort to save civilization once we realize how dire our situation is.
乐观面对世界末日
保罗•吉尔丁(Paul Gilding)是否时刻生活在对世界末日的恐惧中？
这位国际绿色和平组织（Greenpeace International）的前任负责人在他最近出版的一本书里说，大规模的生态危机不可避免。他预言将出现肆虐的灾荒、渴求资源的各国之间的争斗以及金融危机，全球经济将因此停滞数十年。
他的生活方式简直就像是每天都在为世界某日做准备。现年52岁的他和妻子、两个年纪最小的孩子一起生活在偏僻的塔斯马尼亚岛，住在由窝棚改装成的小屋子里，靠一座种植有机蓝莓以及喂养绵羊的农场生活。农场里还有果树和菜园。
但是，吉尔丁坚持说他是乐观主义者。
“一些人总是为世界末日做准备，但我不是这种人，”吉尔丁说。他写作和出版了《大破坏：气候危机怎样颠覆全球经济》（The Great Disruption: How the Climate Crisis Will Transform the Global Economy）一书。
“用商业用语来说，我生活在‘当前经济’中，但是我针对可能发生的大变故设计了安全措施，”他在由柴火棚改造而成的书房里接受记者的电话采访时说。他在塔斯马尼亚的家还没有自给自足到能提供“生活在一个美丽地方具备的物质享受”的地步。
这是一种世界观，反映了吉尔丁选择的环保主义者这个职业，其中也包括一些社会活动人士和公司顾问的工作。
吉尔丁出生于澳大利亚的阿德莱德，父母亲都是从事社会福利事业的卫理公会派教徒。从15岁开始，吉尔丁就参与人权活动。不到20岁时，他曾经将自己绑在堪培拉的南非大使馆门前，抗议种族隔离制度。后来，他从学校退学，前往昆士兰最北部的一个偏僻的土著社区，为一位反核参议员工作。
随后，他在23岁时参加了澳大利亚皇家空军（Royal Australian Air Force）。年轻的吉尔丁从此成为一名现实主义者：激进活动效果不佳，参军似乎是服务社会的另一条途径。
“不管是在空军服役，还是为绿色和平组织效力，对我来说，都是在做同一件事情：让世界更美好、尽自己的一份力，”他说。在悉尼，他学习电子技术，研究飞行模拟装置。
但是，这个工作注定不能长久做下去，尤其是吉尔丁曾经参与过反核抗议活动，曾驾驶气垫船在来访的航空母舰面前示威。他这样评价当时的他和军队的关系，“这么说吧，那时候，双方决定分道扬镳”。
1989年，他加入了澳大利亚的绿色和平组织，多次领导直接行动活动。五年后，他远赴阿姆斯特丹，担任国际绿色和平组织的领导工作──但不到18个月，他就与该组织的理事会产生分歧。“当时，我认为应该支持一些企业反对另外一些企业，而不是反对所有企业，”他说。
吉尔丁因此离开绿色和平组织。1995年，他建立了一个名为Ecos Corp.的咨询公司，为包括必和必拓集团（BHP Billiton）、福特（Ford）和杜邦（DuPont）等知名国际企业，以及澳新银行（ANZ Bank）、澳大利亚保险集团（Insurance Australia Group）等领先的澳洲企业在内的数十家公司提供有关可持续发展的咨询服务。
他还担任Easy Being Green的首席执行官。该公司是Ecos的子公司，拥有200多名员工。公司的业务范围是为客户安装节能灯具。房主无需为此承担费用，因为这项业务可以产生并出售碳排放额度（碳排放额度反映出节省的能源数量）。该公司为澳大利亚的600,000多个家庭安装了这种照明灯具。
但是，到2007年年底，新威尔士州碳排放价格大幅下降，Easy Being Green的运营难以为继。该公司被出售，但留下的债务迫使吉尔丁不得不于2008年卖掉Ecos。从那时起，他私下里为一些公司提供咨询工作，后来将精力转向写作。
“你会给书中倾注很多东西，尤其是对我来说，因为我写的是自己为之付出了一生的事情，”他说。他将新书的出版描述成“情感上的过山车”和艰苦的体力活动。他不久前刚刚回到家中，之前的三个月，他在欧洲、美国和新西兰进行新书推介、与企业领导探讨相关问题。
“人们发来了无数的邀请，要我到美国和其他地区做公开巡讲，”他说。
他计划不久再次上路。这一次，他要向大家讲述未雨绸缪的必要性。他说，人类不愿意正视全球变暖、迅速消耗有限资源带来的巨大威胁。但是，他相信，一旦我们意识到形势的严峻性之后，我们就会不惜代价来挽救文明。
整理：潘钦宇