视频: 奥巴马:那些年我们走过的路 The Road We've Traveled[中英字幕]
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Why President Obama's Approval Ratings Are Going Down
This week might well turn out to have been the turning point in the 2012 election. It started out with both the Washington Post/ABC News and the New York Times/CBS polls showing significant drops in the president's approval ratings. Both were statistically similar samples of Americans polled at about the same time—taken together, it's hard to say either one was a fluke—and both were taken after the Health and Human Services contraception ruling controversy. Why would the president's disapproval numbers be up? Some blame the rising price of gasoline; others say it's because unemployment continues to remain above 8 percent.
I've got a different theory, one that's a little more of a gut feeling. The people I've spoken with lately—both Republicans and Democrats—about the 2012 election have stopped talking about the president's re-election chances, the horserace on the right, or even the latest primaries. They talk about being worried. They're worried about the massive expansion and sprawling reach of the federal government over the last four years, which in many ways the contraception ruling brought to a head. When they think about it for a minute, I don't believe that most Americans believe that mandating free contraception and morning-after pills for all women is a proper duty of the federal government. For that matter, neither is regulating the selection of snacks in school vending machines, or spending stimulus money on the "Weatherization Assistance Fund." You get the idea.
And they're worried about the gridlock in Washington. Obama's constant refrain of insults to Republicans is wearing thin, with this week's "flat earth society" remark being only the latest example of his not reaching across the aisle. They're worried about Americans being divided one against the other, as we've seen in the class warfare "Occupy" rhetoric, the assault on faith-based organizations, and the verbal attacks on women by both sides. Gone are the days when the president would say that we're not red states, not blue states, but the United States. In fact, most people would agree he's one of the most polarizing leaders we've had in a long time. And the divisiveness seems to be getting worse lately.
There's so much uncertainty about what the future holds right now—in terms of taxes, regulations on small businesses, the price of gas, what new rules and bureaucracies are in store under the new healthcare law. We all know people who have had someone laid off, or are struggling to keep their house, and worry if we're next. We don't know what's going to happen with Social Security, Medicare, college tuitions—or even interest rates, if politicians in Washington don't deal with the national debt soon. Whether one is Republican or Democrat, there's a feeling that goes beyond ideology: a feeling that our country needs fixing, and no one in Washington is willing to fix it. I think most Americans thought Barack Obama would change things for the better, and he has failed to do that. That explains why his disapproval ratings are so high, and why his campaign is struggling to raise money. It also explains why the president is trying so hard to keep the conversation away from the economy and on contraception.
That New York Times/CBS poll found that a whopping 80 percent of Americans said they are not better off financially than they were four years ago. That sounds about right to me. But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called that number "so meaningless," which says volumes. No one likes to say that they aren't better off—everyone wants to be moving up the ladder in life—and for 80 percent to admit something like that is not "meaningless." But I bet most people answered that question while thinking: But I want to be better off, and hopefully I will be soon. There's a great can-do spirit among Americans these days—take a look at Clint Eastwood's Super Bowl ad and Bruce Springsteen's "We Take Care of Our Own" anthem at the Grammy Awards and you'll see what I mean—that the White House doesn't seem to understand.
More government, more uncertainty, and more divisiveness are not a winning formula. I think this week marked the beginning of people wising up to it all.
本周有可能被认定是2012大选的转折点。华盛顿邮报联合美国广播体育博彩网和纽约时报联合哥伦比亚广播公司举行的民意调查都显示出了奥巴马总统支持率的大幅下跌，这正是转折的开始。这两个调查都是在同等时间内一起投票的美国人在统计学上的相似样本，这很难说哪一个调查结果是一个巧合，而且它们都是在美国卫生及公共服务部发生节育控制争议之后才进行的调查。总统的反对票数为什么会增加呢？一些人把这归咎于油价的上升；还有人说这是因为失业率继续保持在8%之上。
我有一种不同的并且更加感性的看法。我不久前访谈过的民主党人和共和党人对于2012年总统大选，已经停止谈论总统连任的机会，赢得总统大选的胜率，甚至是最近的预选。他们谈论到了各种焦虑。他们担心过去四年中联邦政府大规模的扩张和大肆的调控在很多方面使节育控制到达了紧要关头。当他们思索着那些事情时，我却不相信大部分美国人会认为对于所有妇女的强制免费避孕政策和发放紧急避孕药是联邦政府应当承担的责任。对于这件事情，既不是规范学校里自动售货机中零食小吃的选择也不是花费“越冬援助基金”的钱来刺激消费。大家都懂这个意思。
同时他们担心华盛顿所处的僵局。奥巴马这周对共和党所做的“地平协会”（Flat Earth Society：美国的一个秘密协会，该协会极端信奉圣经，会员大多为虔诚的基督徒，他们依然坚持并宣传地球是平的）的言论是能代表他并没有左右逢源的最新的一个例子。他们担心美国人民被分割成两个对立群体，比如我们看到在阶级斗争中出现“占领”这般的华丽词藻，和对基于信仰的团体组织的公然挑战，还有双方对妇女的口头攻击。那些总统会对着人民说我们既不是红州（支持共和党的州）也不是蓝州（支持民主党的州）而是美利坚合众国的日子一去不复返了。实际上，大部分的人们会认同奥巴马是长久以来最有影响力的领导人之一。同时近来，分歧似乎有愈演愈烈之势。
现在有很多关于未来掌握了什么的不确定性——就税收、小企业的管制、油价而言，新规定和官僚机构是什么在新的医疗法律下呼之欲出。我们都理解将职工解雇的人或者为他们的房子而努力奋斗的人，并且担心我们是否就会是下一个。如果华盛顿的政治家们不去立即处理那些国债，我们就不知道社会保障、医疗保险、大学学费——甚至是利率将来会如何变化。不论一个人是共和党人还是民主党人，都有一种超越意识形态的感觉：一种当我们的国家需要整修但是在华盛顿却没有一个人想去整修的感觉。我认为大部分美国人以为巴拉克•奥巴马将会把事情转变得更好，但是他失败了。这解释了为什么他的反对率这么高，为什么他在为竞选尽力筹钱。这同样也解释了为什么总统在做这么大的努力来保持对话中远离经济与避孕。
纽约时报联合哥伦比亚广播公司举行的民意调查发现，高达80％的美国人表示他们的财政状况并没有比4年前更好。这听起来和我的情况一样。但参议院多数党领袖Harry Reid称这个数字在数量上“毫无意义”。没有人会喜欢说自己没有过得越来越好——每一个人都想要攀上成功之梯去改善生活——而80%的人却承认面临着更糟的境况并不是“毫无意义”的。但我敢打赌绝大多数人在回答问题时会想：但我想要变得更好，但愿我很快就能实现。如今的美国人有一种伟大的做得到精神——看看克林特·伊斯特伍德（美国电影导演及演员，以牛仔形象为人们所知）的美国橄榄球超级杯大赛广告和布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀（男歌手）在格莱美奖上的 "We Take Care of Our Own"赞歌，你就会明白我的意思——而白宫似乎并不了解。
更多的管制，更多的不确定性和更多的分歧并不是（政府）成功的模式。我认为这周标志着人们开始意识到这个道理。
选题、编辑：张琳琳、胡傲玥、危振稷